Sokol Markovo 5–2 FK Sliven: Result & Stats

Sokol Markovo

FT

5 – 2

FK Sliven

9/27/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 9Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sokol Markovo68%

×Draw16%

FK Sliven16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol MarkovoExpected goals in this matchFK Sliven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

1.30

Sokol Markovo

2.80

FK Sliven

1.30

Sokol Markovo creates 115% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 38 away

1.68

creates per match

0.95

1.66

allows per match

3.92

creates per match

Sokol Markovo

1.68

FK Sliven

0.95

allows per match

Sokol Markovo

1.66

FK Sliven

3.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

FK Sliven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

FK Sliven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw

84%

Sokol Markovo or FK Sliven

84%

Draw or FK Sliven

32%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+

47%

FK Sliven wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals

94%

Sokol Markovo 2+ goals

76%

Sokol Markovo 3+ goals

52%

FK Sliven 1+ goals

73%

FK Sliven 2+ goals

37%

FK Sliven 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)

81%

FK Sliven (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

FK Sliven away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + FK Sliven defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 2.80

FK Sliven attack 0.95 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more

68%

level

16%

FK Sliven scores more

16%

Sokol Markovo at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff