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FK Sliven vs Sokol Markovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Sliven
FK Sliven
FT
2 – 0
Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
9/28/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 9Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Sliven55%
×Draw21%
Sokol Markovo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sliven
2.06
Sokol Markovo
1.29

FK Sliven creates 60% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 98 away

creates per match

FK Sliven
1.68
Sokol Markovo
0.72

allows per match

FK Sliven
1.87
Sokol Markovo
2.43

finishing

FK Sliven+0.00on par
Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sliven ↓

Sokol Markovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FK Sliven or draw
76%
FK Sliven or Sokol Markovo
79%
Draw or Sokol Markovo
45%

Winning margin

FK Sliven wins by 2+
33%
Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Sliven 1+ goals
87%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
61%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
34%
Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
72%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
37%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Sliven (draw refunded)
70%
Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sliven at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sliven attack 1.68 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.06

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + FK Sliven defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FK Sliven scores more
55%
level
21%
Sokol Markovo scores more
24%

FK Sliven at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FK Sliven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: FK Sliven 2–0 Sokol Markovo

FK Sliven beat Sokol Markovo 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar in Sliven.