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Sokol Markovo vs Beroe II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Beroe II
Beroe II
5/15/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 35Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sokol Markovo60%
×Draw20%
Beroe II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
2.23
Beroe II
1.21

Sokol Markovo creates 84% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 55 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Beroe II
0.76

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Beroe II
2.78

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Beroe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
80%
Sokol Markovo or Beroe II
80%
Draw or Beroe II
40%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
38%
Beroe II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
89%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
65%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
38%
Beroe II 1+ goals
70%
Beroe II 2+ goals
34%
Beroe II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
75%
Beroe II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.23

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
60%
level
20%
Beroe II scores more
20%

Sokol Markovo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sokol Markovo 2–2 Beroe II

Sokol Markovo and Beroe II drew 2-2 in Third League - Southeast on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Markovo.