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Beroe II vs Sokol Markovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Beroe II
Beroe II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
11/5/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 16Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Beroe II51%
×Draw23%
Sokol Markovo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe II
1.83
Sokol Markovo
1.25

Beroe II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 98 away

creates per match

Beroe II
1.22
Sokol Markovo
0.72

allows per match

Beroe II
1.78
Sokol Markovo
2.43

finishing

Beroe II+0.00on par
Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe II ↓

Sokol Markovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Beroe II or draw
74%
Beroe II or Sokol Markovo
77%
Draw or Sokol Markovo
49%

Winning margin

Beroe II wins by 2+
28%
Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Beroe II 1+ goals
84%
Beroe II 2+ goals
54%
Beroe II 3+ goals
28%
Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
71%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
36%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Beroe II (draw refunded)
66%
Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe II attack 1.22 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Beroe II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Beroe II scores more
51%
level
23%
Sokol Markovo scores more
26%

Beroe II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Beroe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beroe II 0 – 3 Sokol Markovo

Sokol Markovo beat Beroe II 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Stara Zagora.