Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sokol Lom vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
9/11/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 6Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokol Lom66%
×Draw18%
Otava Katovice16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lom
2.47
Otava Katovice
1.14

Sokol Lom creates 117% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sokol Lom
2.65
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Sokol Lom
0.94
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Sokol Lom+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lom ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sokol Lom or draw
84%
Sokol Lom or Otava Katovice
82%
Draw or Otava Katovice
34%

Winning margin

Sokol Lom wins by 2+
44%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sokol Lom 1+ goals
91%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
70%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
44%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
68%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
32%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
80%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lom at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lom attack 2.65 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.47

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Sokol Lom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sokol Lom scores more
66%
level
18%
Otava Katovice scores more
16%

Sokol Lom at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Sokol Lom 5–2 Otava Katovice

Sokol Lom beat Otava Katovice 5-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Svépomoc in Tábor.