Otava Katovice 0–1 Sokol Lom: Result & Stats

Otava Katovice

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sokol Lom

4/7/2023

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 21Dudák Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Otava Katovice43%

×Draw22%

Sokol Lom35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Otava KatoviceExpected goals in this matchSokol Lom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.69

Otava Katovice

1.88

Sokol Lom

1.69

Otava Katovice creates 11% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 34 away

2.29

creates per match

2.03

1.36

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Otava Katovice

2.29

Sokol Lom

2.03

allows per match

Otava Katovice

1.36

Sokol Lom

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otava Katovice ↓

Sokol Lom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Otava Katovice or draw

65%

Otava Katovice or Sokol Lom

78%

Draw or Sokol Lom

57%

Winning margin

Otava Katovice wins by 2+

23%

Sokol Lom wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Otava Katovice 1+ goals

85%

Otava Katovice 2+ goals

56%

Otava Katovice 3+ goals

29%

Sokol Lom 1+ goals

82%

Sokol Lom 2+ goals

50%

Sokol Lom 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Otava Katovice (draw refunded)

55%

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otava Katovice at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otava Katovice attack 2.29 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Otava Katovice defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Otava Katovice scores more

43%

level

22%

Sokol Lom scores more

35%

Otava Katovice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff