Sokol Lom 6–1 Klatovy: Result & Stats

Sokol Lom

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Klatovy

10/30/2022

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 13Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokol Lom64%

×Draw18%

Klatovy17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol LomExpected goals in this matchKlatovy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.19

Sokol Lom

2.44

Klatovy

1.19

Sokol Lom creates 105% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

2.65

creates per match

1.44

0.94

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Sokol Lom

2.65

Klatovy

1.44

allows per match

Sokol Lom

0.94

Klatovy

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Klatovy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lom ↓

Klatovy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Sokol Lom or draw

83%

Sokol Lom or Klatovy

82%

Draw or Klatovy

36%

Winning margin

Sokol Lom wins by 2+

42%

Klatovy wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sokol Lom 1+ goals

91%

Sokol Lom 2+ goals

70%

Sokol Lom 3+ goals

43%

Klatovy 1+ goals

70%

Klatovy 2+ goals

33%

Klatovy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)

79%

Klatovy (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lom at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Klatovy away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lom attack 2.65 + Klatovy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.44

Klatovy attack 1.44 + Sokol Lom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sokol Lom scores more

64%

level

18%

Klatovy scores more

17%

Sokol Lom at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff