Klatovy 3–0 Sokol Lom: Result & Stats

Klatovy

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sokol Lom

6/4/2022

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 28Stadion Na Rozvoji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Klatovy37%

×Draw22%

Sokol Lom41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KlatovyExpected goals in this matchSokol Lom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.78

Klatovy

1.68

Sokol Lom

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 34 away

1.89

creates per match

2.03

1.53

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Klatovy

1.89

Sokol Lom

2.03

allows per match

Klatovy

1.53

Sokol Lom

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Klatovy+0.00on par

Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klatovy ↓

Sokol Lom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Klatovy or draw

59%

Klatovy or Sokol Lom

78%

Draw or Sokol Lom

63%

Winning margin

Klatovy wins by 2+

18%

Sokol Lom wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Klatovy 1+ goals

81%

Klatovy 2+ goals

50%

Klatovy 3+ goals

24%

Sokol Lom 1+ goals

83%

Sokol Lom 2+ goals

53%

Sokol Lom 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Klatovy (draw refunded)

47%

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klatovy at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klatovy attack 1.89 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.68

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Klatovy defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Klatovy scores more

37%

level

22%

Sokol Lom scores more

41%

Sokol Lom at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff