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Sokol Lom vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
CANC
15:00
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
5/15/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 24Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokol Lom70%
×Draw17%
Jindřichův Hradec13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lom
2.58
Jindřichův Hradec
1.04

Sokol Lom creates 148% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sokol Lom
2.65
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Sokol Lom
0.94
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Sokol Lom+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lom ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sokol Lom or draw
87%
Sokol Lom or Jindřichův Hradec
83%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
30%

Winning margin

Sokol Lom wins by 2+
48%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sokol Lom 1+ goals
92%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
72%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
47%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
65%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
28%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
84%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lom at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lom attack 2.65 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Sokol Lom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sokol Lom scores more
70%
level
17%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
13%

Sokol Lom at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Lom vs Jindřichův Hradec — Match Preview

Sokol Lom face Jindřichův Hradec on May 15, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sokol Lom host Jindřichův Hradec at Stadion Svépomoc.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.