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Jindřichův Hradec vs Sokol Lom — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
1 – 4
Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
9/25/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 9Hřiště Vajgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec26%
×Draw21%
Sokol Lom53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.46
Sokol Lom
2.12

Sokol Lom creates 45% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 34 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Sokol Lom
2.03

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Sokol Lom
1.47

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Sokol Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
47%
Jindřichův Hradec or Sokol Lom
79%
Draw or Sokol Lom
74%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
12%
Sokol Lom wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
77%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
43%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
18%
Sokol Lom 1+ goals
88%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
62%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
34%
Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
26%
level
21%
Sokol Lom scores more
53%

Sokol Lom at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jindřichův Hradec vs Sokol Lom

Sokol Lom beat Jindřichův Hradec 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Hřiště Vajgar in Jindřichův Hradec.