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Sokol Lom vs Horní Bříza — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
10/16/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 11Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Lom79%
×Draw14%
Horní Bříza7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lom
2.63
Horní Bříza
0.67

Sokol Lom creates 293% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sokol Lom
2.65
Horní Bříza
0.40

allows per match

Sokol Lom
0.94
Horní Bříza
2.60

finishing

Sokol Lom+0.00on par
Horní Bříza+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lom ↓

Horní Bříza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sokol Lom or draw
93%
Sokol Lom or Horní Bříza
86%
Draw or Horní Bříza
21%

Winning margin

Sokol Lom wins by 2+
57%
Horní Bříza wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sokol Lom 1+ goals
93%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
73%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
48%
Horní Bříza 1+ goals
49%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
15%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
92%
Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lom at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Horní Bříza away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lom attack 2.65 + Horní Bříza defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.63

Horní Bříza attack 0.40 + Sokol Lom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Sokol Lom scores more
79%
level
14%
Horní Bříza scores more
7%

Sokol Lom at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Lom vs Horní Bříza

Sokol Lom beat Horní Bříza 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Svépomoc in Tábor.