Horní Bříza 1–5 Sokol Lom: Result & Stats

Horní Bříza

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Sokol Lom

5/13/2023

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 26Fotbalově Hřiště Horní Bříza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Horní Bříza19%

×Draw19%

Sokol Lom62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Horní BřízaExpected goals in this matchSokol Lom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

2.28

Horní Bříza

1.17

Sokol Lom

2.28

Sokol Lom creates 95% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 34 away

0.87

creates per match

2.03

2.53

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Horní Bříza

0.87

Sokol Lom

2.03

allows per match

Horní Bříza

2.53

Sokol Lom

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Horní Bříza+0.00on par

Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Bříza ↓

Sokol Lom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Horní Bříza or draw

38%

Horní Bříza or Sokol Lom

81%

Draw or Sokol Lom

81%

Winning margin

Horní Bříza wins by 2+

7%

Sokol Lom wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Horní Bříza 1+ goals

69%

Horní Bříza 2+ goals

33%

Horní Bříza 3+ goals

11%

Sokol Lom 1+ goals

90%

Sokol Lom 2+ goals

66%

Sokol Lom 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Horní Bříza (draw refunded)

23%

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Bříza at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Bříza attack 0.87 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Horní Bříza defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Horní Bříza scores more

19%

level

19%

Sokol Lom scores more

62%

Sokol Lom at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff