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Sokol Lom vs České Budějovice II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
5/15/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 25Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sokol Lom48%
×Draw22%
České Budějovice II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lom
1.98
České Budějovice II
1.56

Sokol Lom creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sokol Lom
2.65
České Budějovice II
2.19

allows per match

Sokol Lom
0.94
České Budějovice II
1.31

finishing

Sokol Lom+0.00on par
České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lom ↓

České Budějovice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sokol Lom or draw
69%
Sokol Lom or České Budějovice II
78%
Draw or České Budějovice II
52%

Winning margin

Sokol Lom wins by 2+
27%
České Budějovice II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sokol Lom 1+ goals
86%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
59%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
31%
České Budějovice II 1+ goals
79%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
46%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
61%
České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lom at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lom attack 2.65 + České Budějovice II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.98

České Budějovice II attack 2.19 + Sokol Lom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sokol Lom scores more
48%
level
22%
České Budějovice II scores more
31%

Sokol Lom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Lom vs České Budějovice II

Sokol Lom and České Budějovice II drew 3-3 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Svépomoc in Tábor.