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České Budějovice II vs Sokol Lom — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
FT
3 – 1
Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
10/2/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 10SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

České Budějovice II59%
×Draw19%
Sokol Lom22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice II
2.38
Sokol Lom
1.40

České Budějovice II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 34 away

creates per match

České Budějovice II
3.30
Sokol Lom
2.03

allows per match

České Budějovice II
0.78
Sokol Lom
1.47

finishing

České Budějovice II+0.00on par
Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice II ↓

Sokol Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

České Budějovice II or draw
78%
České Budějovice II or Sokol Lom
81%
Draw or Sokol Lom
41%

Winning margin

České Budějovice II wins by 2+
37%
Sokol Lom wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

České Budějovice II 1+ goals
91%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
68%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
42%
Sokol Lom 1+ goals
75%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
41%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
73%
Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice II at home — creates 3.30, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice II attack 3.30 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.38

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + České Budějovice II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

České Budějovice II scores more
59%
level
19%
Sokol Lom scores more
22%

České Budějovice II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "České Budějovice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: České Budějovice II 3–1 Sokol Lom

České Budějovice II beat Sokol Lom 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at SCM Složiště in České Budějovice.