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Sokol Libiš vs Olympie Březová — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
5/6/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 25Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Libiš37%
×Draw22%
Olympie Březová41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
1.75
Olympie Březová
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
1.20
Olympie Březová
1.38

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
2.33
Olympie Březová
2.31

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Olympie Březová+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Olympie Březová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
59%
Sokol Libiš or Olympie Březová
78%
Draw or Olympie Březová
63%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
19%
Olympie Březová wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
83%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
52%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
25%
Olympie Březová 1+ goals
84%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
55%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
47%
Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Olympie Březová away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 1.20 + Olympie Březová defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.75

Olympie Březová attack 1.38 + Sokol Libiš defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
37%
level
22%
Olympie Březová scores more
41%

Olympie Březová at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olympie Březová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Libiš vs Olympie Březová

Olympie Březová beat Sokol Libiš 6-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.