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Olympie Březová vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
10/8/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 10Stadion TJ Olympie Březová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Olympie Březová54%
×Draw20%
Sokol Libiš26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympie Březová
2.40
Sokol Libiš
1.64

Olympie Březová creates 46% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 15 away

creates per match

Olympie Březová
1.79
Sokol Libiš
1.33

allows per match

Olympie Březová
1.94
Sokol Libiš
3.00

finishing

Olympie Březová+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympie Březová ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Olympie Březová or draw
74%
Olympie Březová or Sokol Libiš
80%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
46%

Winning margin

Olympie Březová wins by 2+
34%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Olympie Březová 1+ goals
91%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
69%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
42%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
81%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
49%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
67%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympie Březová at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.94 · 80 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympie Březová attack 1.79 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Sokol Libiš attack 1.33 + Olympie Březová defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Olympie Březová scores more
54%
level
20%
Sokol Libiš scores more
26%

Olympie Březová at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Olympie Březová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olympie Březová 4 – 1 Sokol Libiš

Olympie Březová beat Sokol Libiš 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Olympie Březová in Březová.