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Sokol Libiš vs Neratovice-Byškovice — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
4/7/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 21Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Libiš24%
×Draw22%
Neratovice-Byškovice54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
1.26
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.98

Neratovice-Byškovice creates 57% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
1.20
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.62

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
2.33
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.32

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Neratovice-Byškovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
46%
Sokol Libiš or Neratovice-Byškovice
78%
Draw or Neratovice-Byškovice
76%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
10%
Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
72%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
36%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
13%
Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
86%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
59%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
31%
Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Neratovice-Byškovice away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 1.20 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 1.62 + Sokol Libiš defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
24%
level
22%
Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
54%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Sokol Libiš 0–2 Neratovice-Byškovice

Neratovice-Byškovice beat Sokol Libiš 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.