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Neratovice-Byškovice vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
9/10/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 6Stadion Neratovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Neratovice-Byškovice73%
×Draw16%
Sokol Libiš12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neratovice-Byškovice
2.69
Sokol Libiš
1.00

Neratovice-Byškovice creates 169% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

creates per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
2.37
Sokol Libiš
1.33

allows per match

Neratovice-Byškovice
0.66
Sokol Libiš
3.00

finishing

Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neratovice-Byškovice ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Neratovice-Byškovice or draw
88%
Neratovice-Byškovice or Sokol Libiš
84%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
27%

Winning margin

Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
51%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
93%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
74%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
49%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
63%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
26%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
86%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neratovice-Byškovice at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 2.37 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.69

Sokol Libiš attack 1.33 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
73%
level
16%
Sokol Libiš scores more
12%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Neratovice-Byškovice 2 – 1 Sokol Libiš

Neratovice-Byškovice beat Sokol Libiš 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Neratovice in Neratovice.