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Sokol Libiš vs Meteor Praha — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
8/6/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 1Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Libiš29%
×Draw22%
Meteor Praha49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
1.46
Meteor Praha
1.95

Meteor Praha creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
1.20
Meteor Praha
1.57

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
2.33
Meteor Praha
1.72

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Meteor Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Meteor Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
51%
Sokol Libiš or Meteor Praha
78%
Draw or Meteor Praha
71%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
13%
Meteor Praha wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
77%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
43%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
18%
Meteor Praha 1+ goals
86%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
58%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
37%
Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Meteor Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 1.20 + Meteor Praha defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Meteor Praha attack 1.57 + Sokol Libiš defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
29%
level
22%
Meteor Praha scores more
49%

Meteor Praha at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Libiš 3 – 3 Meteor Praha

Sokol Libiš and Meteor Praha drew 3-3 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.