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Meteor Praha vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
3/5/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 16TC Strahov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Meteor Praha66%
×Draw17%
Sokol Libiš16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meteor Praha
2.65
Sokol Libiš
1.26

Meteor Praha creates 110% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 15 away

creates per match

Meteor Praha
2.29
Sokol Libiš
1.33

allows per match

Meteor Praha
1.19
Sokol Libiš
3.00

finishing

Meteor Praha+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meteor Praha ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Meteor Praha or draw
84%
Meteor Praha or Sokol Libiš
83%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
34%

Winning margin

Meteor Praha wins by 2+
45%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Meteor Praha 1+ goals
93%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
74%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
48%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
72%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
36%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
80%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meteor Praha at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meteor Praha attack 2.29 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.65

Sokol Libiš attack 1.33 + Meteor Praha defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Meteor Praha scores more
66%
level
17%
Sokol Libiš scores more
16%

Meteor Praha at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Meteor Praha 1–1 Sokol Libiš

Meteor Praha and Sokol Libiš drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at TC Strahov in Praha.