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Sokol Libiš vs Hvězda Cheb — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
3/25/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 19Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Libiš53%
×Draw21%
Hvězda Cheb26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
2.21
Hvězda Cheb
1.52

Sokol Libiš creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
1.20
Hvězda Cheb
0.70

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
2.33
Hvězda Cheb
3.23

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Hvězda Cheb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
74%
Sokol Libiš or Hvězda Cheb
79%
Draw or Hvězda Cheb
47%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
32%
Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
89%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
65%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
38%
Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
78%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
45%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
67%
Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Hvězda Cheb away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 1.20 + Hvězda Cheb defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.21

Hvězda Cheb attack 0.70 + Sokol Libiš defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
53%
level
21%
Hvězda Cheb scores more
26%

Sokol Libiš at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sokol Libiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Sokol Libiš 3–1 Hvězda Cheb

Sokol Libiš beat Hvězda Cheb 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.