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Hvězda Cheb vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
8/27/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 4Stadion Lokomotiva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hvězda Cheb49%
×Draw21%
Sokol Libiš29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hvězda Cheb
2.06
Sokol Libiš
1.56

Hvězda Cheb creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.13
Sokol Libiš
1.33

allows per match

Hvězda Cheb
1.80
Sokol Libiš
3.00

finishing

Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvězda Cheb ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hvězda Cheb or draw
71%
Hvězda Cheb or Sokol Libiš
79%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
51%

Winning margin

Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
28%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
87%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
61%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
34%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
79%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
46%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
63%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvězda Cheb at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.13 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Sokol Libiš attack 1.33 + Hvězda Cheb defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hvězda Cheb scores more
49%
level
21%
Sokol Libiš scores more
29%

Hvězda Cheb at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hvězda Cheb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hvězda Cheb vs Sokol Libiš

Hvězda Cheb beat Sokol Libiš 5-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiva in Cheb.