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Sokol Libiš vs Dvůr Králové — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
CANC
08:15
Dvůr Králové
Dvůr Králové
5/1/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 22Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sokol Libiš58%
×Draw20%
Dvůr Králové22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
2.20
Dvůr Králové
1.30

Sokol Libiš creates 69% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 40 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
2.12
Dvůr Králové
1.10

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
1.50
Dvůr Králové
2.27

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Dvůr Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Dvůr Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
78%
Sokol Libiš or Dvůr Králové
80%
Draw or Dvůr Králové
42%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
35%
Dvůr Králové wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
89%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
64%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
37%
Dvůr Králové 1+ goals
73%
Dvůr Králové 2+ goals
37%
Dvůr Králové 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
72%
Dvůr Králové (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

Dvůr Králové away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 2.12 + Dvůr Králové defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.20

Dvůr Králové attack 1.10 + Sokol Libiš defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
58%
level
20%
Dvůr Králové scores more
22%

Sokol Libiš at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sokol Libiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sokol Libiš host Dvůr Králové

May 1, 2021: Sokol Libiš take on Dvůr Králové in 4. liga - Divizie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sokol Libiš host Dvůr Králové at Fotbalový stadion Libiš.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.