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Dvůr Králové vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Dvůr Králové
Dvůr Králové
FT
4 – 2
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
9/12/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 7Stadion Pod Hankovým domem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dvůr Králové59%
×Draw19%
Sokol Libiš21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dvůr Králové
2.38
Sokol Libiš
1.37

Dvůr Králové creates 74% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 26 away

creates per match

Dvůr Králové
1.71
Sokol Libiš
1.12

allows per match

Dvůr Králové
1.61
Sokol Libiš
3.04

finishing

Dvůr Králové+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dvůr Králové ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Dvůr Králové or draw
79%
Dvůr Králové or Sokol Libiš
81%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
41%

Winning margin

Dvůr Králové wins by 2+
38%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dvůr Králové 1+ goals
91%
Dvůr Králové 2+ goals
68%
Dvůr Králové 3+ goals
42%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
75%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
40%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dvůr Králové (draw refunded)
74%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dvůr Králové at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dvůr Králové attack 1.71 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.38

Sokol Libiš attack 1.12 + Dvůr Králové defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dvůr Králové scores more
59%
level
19%
Sokol Libiš scores more
21%

Dvůr Králové at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dvůr Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Dvůr Králové 4–2 Sokol Libiš

Dvůr Králové beat Sokol Libiš 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Hankovým domem in Dvůr Králové nad Labem.