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Sokol Libiš vs Český Brod — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Český Brod
Český Brod
3/11/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 17Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Libiš28%
×Draw24%
Český Brod48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
1.25
Český Brod
1.71

Český Brod creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 62 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
1.20
Český Brod
1.08

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
2.33
Český Brod
1.31

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Český Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Český Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
52%
Sokol Libiš or Český Brod
76%
Draw or Český Brod
72%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
12%
Český Brod wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
71%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
36%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
13%
Český Brod 1+ goals
82%
Český Brod 2+ goals
51%
Český Brod 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
37%
Český Brod (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Český Brod away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 1.20 + Český Brod defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Český Brod attack 1.08 + Sokol Libiš defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
28%
level
24%
Český Brod scores more
48%

Český Brod at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Český Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Sokol Libiš 0–4 Český Brod

Český Brod beat Sokol Libiš 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.