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Český Brod vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Český Brod
Český Brod
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
8/13/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 2Stadion Na Kutilce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Český Brod65%
×Draw18%
Sokol Libiš17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český Brod
2.59
Sokol Libiš
1.29

Český Brod creates 101% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

creates per match

Český Brod
2.18
Sokol Libiš
1.33

allows per match

Český Brod
1.26
Sokol Libiš
3.00

finishing

Český Brod+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český Brod ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Český Brod or draw
83%
Český Brod or Sokol Libiš
82%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
35%

Winning margin

Český Brod wins by 2+
44%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Český Brod 1+ goals
92%
Český Brod 2+ goals
73%
Český Brod 3+ goals
47%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
72%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
37%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Český Brod (draw refunded)
79%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český Brod at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.26 · 61 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český Brod attack 2.18 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.59

Sokol Libiš attack 1.33 + Český Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Český Brod scores more
65%
level
18%
Sokol Libiš scores more
17%

Český Brod at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Český Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Český Brod vs Sokol Libiš

Sokol Libiš beat Český Brod 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Kutilce in Český Brod.