Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sokol Libiš vs Admira Praha II — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Admira Praha II
Admira Praha II
10/1/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 9Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Libiš38%
×Draw23%
Admira Praha II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
1.67
Admira Praha II
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
1.20
Admira Praha II
1.09

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
2.33
Admira Praha II
2.13

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Admira Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Admira Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
61%
Sokol Libiš or Admira Praha II
77%
Draw or Admira Praha II
62%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
19%
Admira Praha II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
81%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
50%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
23%
Admira Praha II 1+ goals
82%
Admira Praha II 2+ goals
51%
Admira Praha II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
49%
Admira Praha II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Admira Praha II away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 1.20 + Admira Praha II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Admira Praha II attack 1.09 + Sokol Libiš defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
38%
level
23%
Admira Praha II scores more
39%

Admira Praha II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Admira Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Sokol Libiš 3–0 Admira Praha II

Sokol Libiš beat Admira Praha II 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.