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Admira Praha II vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Admira Praha II
Admira Praha II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
4/30/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 24Stadion Na Pecích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Admira Praha II58%
×Draw21%
Sokol Libiš21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Praha II
2.09
Sokol Libiš
1.20

Admira Praha II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

creates per match

Admira Praha II
1.18
Sokol Libiš
1.33

allows per match

Admira Praha II
1.07
Sokol Libiš
3.00

finishing

Admira Praha II+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Praha II ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Admira Praha II or draw
79%
Admira Praha II or Sokol Libiš
79%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
42%

Winning margin

Admira Praha II wins by 2+
35%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Admira Praha II 1+ goals
88%
Admira Praha II 2+ goals
62%
Admira Praha II 3+ goals
34%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
70%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
34%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Admira Praha II (draw refunded)
73%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Praha II at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Praha II attack 1.18 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Sokol Libiš attack 1.33 + Admira Praha II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Admira Praha II scores more
58%
level
21%
Sokol Libiš scores more
21%

Admira Praha II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Admira Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Admira Praha II vs Sokol Libiš

Sokol Libiš beat Admira Praha II 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Na Pecích in Praha.