Sokol Lanžhot 4–1 Slavoj Polná: Result & Stats

Sokol Lanžhot

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Slavoj Polná

5/29/2022

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 24Na Šlajsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Sokol Lanžhot76%

×Draw14%

Slavoj Polná10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol LanžhotExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Polná

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

0.91

Sokol Lanžhot

2.81

Slavoj Polná

0.91

Sokol Lanžhot creates 209% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 54 away

2.42

creates per match

0.96

0.85

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Sokol Lanžhot

2.42

Slavoj Polná

0.96

allows per match

Sokol Lanžhot

0.85

Slavoj Polná

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lanžhot ↓

Slavoj Polná →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Sokol Lanžhot or draw

90%

Sokol Lanžhot or Slavoj Polná

86%

Draw or Slavoj Polná

24%

Winning margin

Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+

55%

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals

94%

Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals

76%

Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals

52%

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals

60%

Slavoj Polná 2+ goals

23%

Slavoj Polná 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)

89%

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lanžhot at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lanžhot attack 2.42 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.81

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Sokol Lanžhot scores more

76%

level

14%

Slavoj Polná scores more

10%

Sokol Lanžhot at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff