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Slavoj Polná vs Sokol Lanžhot — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Sokol Lanžhot
Sokol Lanžhot
8/11/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 2Stadion Slavoj Polná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Slavoj Polná16%
×Draw20%
Sokol Lanžhot63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Polná
0.98
Sokol Lanžhot
2.13

Sokol Lanžhot creates 117% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 67 away

creates per match

Slavoj Polná
0.83
Sokol Lanžhot
1.75

allows per match

Slavoj Polná
2.50
Sokol Lanžhot
1.12

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par
Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Sokol Lanžhot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw
37%
Slavoj Polná or Sokol Lanžhot
80%
Draw or Sokol Lanžhot
84%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
6%
Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
62%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
26%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
8%
Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals
88%
Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals
63%
Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
21%
Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Sokol Lanžhot away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Sokol Lanžhot attack 1.75 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more
16%
level
20%
Sokol Lanžhot scores more
63%

Sokol Lanžhot at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Polná vs Sokol Lanžhot

Sokol Lanžhot beat Slavoj Polná 6-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Slavoj Polná in Polná.