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Sokol Lanžhot vs Dálnice Speřice — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Sokol Lanžhot
Sokol Lanžhot
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dálnice Speřice
Dálnice Speřice
3/10/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 16Na Šlajsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Sokol Lanžhot76%
×Draw15%
Dálnice Speřice9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lanžhot
2.50
Dálnice Speřice
0.73

Sokol Lanžhot creates 242% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 58 away

creates per match

Sokol Lanžhot
2.42
Dálnice Speřice
0.62

allows per match

Sokol Lanžhot
0.85
Dálnice Speřice
2.59

finishing

Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par
Dálnice Speřice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lanžhot ↓

Dálnice Speřice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sokol Lanžhot or draw
91%
Sokol Lanžhot or Dálnice Speřice
85%
Draw or Dálnice Speřice
24%

Winning margin

Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+
53%
Dálnice Speřice wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals
92%
Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals
71%
Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals
45%
Dálnice Speřice 1+ goals
52%
Dálnice Speřice 2+ goals
17%
Dálnice Speřice 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)
89%
Dálnice Speřice (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lanžhot at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Dálnice Speřice away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.59 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lanžhot attack 2.42 + Dálnice Speřice defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.50

Dálnice Speřice attack 0.62 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Sokol Lanžhot scores more
76%
level
15%
Dálnice Speřice scores more
9%

Sokol Lanžhot at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Sokol Lanžhot 2–0 Dálnice Speřice

Sokol Lanžhot beat Dálnice Speřice 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Na Šlajsi in Lanžhot.