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Dálnice Speřice vs Sokol Lanžhot — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Dálnice Speřice
Dálnice Speřice
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Lanžhot
Sokol Lanžhot
6/1/20254. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 28Hřiště TJ Speřice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Dálnice Speřice29%
×Draw24%
Sokol Lanžhot46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dálnice Speřice
1.27
Sokol Lanžhot
1.66

Sokol Lanžhot creates 31% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 67 away

creates per match

Dálnice Speřice
1.41
Sokol Lanžhot
1.75

allows per match

Dálnice Speřice
1.57
Sokol Lanžhot
1.12

finishing

Dálnice Speřice+0.00on par
Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dálnice Speřice ↓

Sokol Lanžhot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dálnice Speřice or draw
54%
Dálnice Speřice or Sokol Lanžhot
76%
Draw or Sokol Lanžhot
71%

Winning margin

Dálnice Speřice wins by 2+
12%
Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dálnice Speřice 1+ goals
72%
Dálnice Speřice 2+ goals
36%
Dálnice Speřice 3+ goals
14%
Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals
81%
Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals
49%
Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dálnice Speřice (draw refunded)
39%
Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dálnice Speřice at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

Sokol Lanžhot away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dálnice Speřice attack 1.41 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sokol Lanžhot attack 1.75 + Dálnice Speřice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dálnice Speřice scores more
29%
level
24%
Sokol Lanžhot scores more
46%

Sokol Lanžhot at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Dálnice Speřice 3–1 Sokol Lanžhot

Dálnice Speřice beat Sokol Lanžhot 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Speřice in Jiřice.