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Sokol Hostouň vs Loko Vltavín — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Sokol Hostouň
Sokol Hostouň
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Loko Vltavín
Loko Vltavín
9/1/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 4Stadion Vojtěcha Zeithamla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Sokol Hostouň42%
×Draw25%
Loko Vltavín33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Hostouň
1.47
Loko Vltavín
1.27

Sokol Hostouň creates 16% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 87 away

creates per match

Sokol Hostouň
1.39
Loko Vltavín
1.23

allows per match

Sokol Hostouň
1.32
Loko Vltavín
1.55

finishing

Sokol Hostouň+0.00on par
Loko Vltavín+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Hostouň ↓

Loko Vltavín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sokol Hostouň or draw
67%
Sokol Hostouň or Loko Vltavín
75%
Draw or Loko Vltavín
58%

Winning margin

Sokol Hostouň wins by 2+
20%
Loko Vltavín wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sokol Hostouň 1+ goals
77%
Sokol Hostouň 2+ goals
43%
Sokol Hostouň 3+ goals
18%
Loko Vltavín 1+ goals
72%
Loko Vltavín 2+ goals
36%
Loko Vltavín 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sokol Hostouň (draw refunded)
56%
Loko Vltavín (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Hostouň at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.32 · 84 matches

Loko Vltavín away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.55 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Hostouň attack 1.39 + Loko Vltavín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Loko Vltavín attack 1.23 + Sokol Hostouň defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sokol Hostouň scores more
42%
level
25%
Loko Vltavín scores more
33%

Sokol Hostouň at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sokol Hostouň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Hostouň vs Loko Vltavín

Loko Vltavín beat Sokol Hostouň 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vojtěcha Zeithamla in Hostouň.