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Loko Vltavín vs Sokol Hostouň — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Loko Vltavín
Loko Vltavín
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sokol Hostouň
Sokol Hostouň
3/28/20263. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 21Stadion U Pruhonu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Loko Vltavín52%
×Draw23%
Sokol Hostouň24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loko Vltavín
1.77
Sokol Hostouň
1.13

Loko Vltavín creates 57% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

creates per match

Loko Vltavín
1.72
Sokol Hostouň
1.03

allows per match

Loko Vltavín
1.22
Sokol Hostouň
1.82

finishing

Loko Vltavín+0.00on par
Sokol Hostouň+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loko Vltavín ↓

Sokol Hostouň →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Loko Vltavín or draw
76%
Loko Vltavín or Sokol Hostouň
77%
Draw or Sokol Hostouň
48%

Winning margin

Loko Vltavín wins by 2+
29%
Sokol Hostouň wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Loko Vltavín 1+ goals
83%
Loko Vltavín 2+ goals
53%
Loko Vltavín 3+ goals
26%
Sokol Hostouň 1+ goals
68%
Sokol Hostouň 2+ goals
31%
Sokol Hostouň 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Loko Vltavín (draw refunded)
68%
Sokol Hostouň (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loko Vltavín at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.22 · 87 matches

Sokol Hostouň away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.82 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loko Vltavín attack 1.72 + Sokol Hostouň defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sokol Hostouň attack 1.03 + Loko Vltavín defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Loko Vltavín scores more
52%
level
23%
Sokol Hostouň scores more
24%

Loko Vltavín at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Loko Vltavín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Loko Vltavín 1–0 Sokol Hostouň

Loko Vltavín beat Sokol Hostouň 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion U Pruhonu.