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Sokol Hostouň vs Králův Dvůr — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Sokol Hostouň
Sokol Hostouň
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
3/16/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 18Rynholec Uměla Tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sokol Hostouň48%
×Draw24%
Králův Dvůr28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Hostouň
1.68
Králův Dvůr
1.24

Sokol Hostouň creates 35% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sokol Hostouň
1.39
Králův Dvůr
1.16

allows per match

Sokol Hostouň
1.32
Králův Dvůr
1.97

finishing

Sokol Hostouň+0.00on par
Králův Dvůr+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Hostouň ↓

Králův Dvůr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sokol Hostouň or draw
72%
Sokol Hostouň or Králův Dvůr
76%
Draw or Králův Dvůr
52%

Winning margin

Sokol Hostouň wins by 2+
25%
Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sokol Hostouň 1+ goals
81%
Sokol Hostouň 2+ goals
50%
Sokol Hostouň 3+ goals
24%
Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
71%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
35%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sokol Hostouň (draw refunded)
63%
Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Hostouň at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.32 · 84 matches

Králův Dvůr away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.97 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Hostouň attack 1.39 + Králův Dvůr defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.68

Králův Dvůr attack 1.16 + Sokol Hostouň defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sokol Hostouň scores more
48%
level
24%
Králův Dvůr scores more
28%

Sokol Hostouň at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sokol Hostouň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Hostouň vs Králův Dvůr

Sokol Hostouň beat Králův Dvůr 2-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Rynholec Uměla Tráva in Rynholec.