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Králův Dvůr vs Sokol Hostouň — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Sokol Hostouň
Sokol Hostouň
4/22/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 23Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Králův Dvůr53%
×Draw23%
Sokol Hostouň25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Králův Dvůr
1.88
Sokol Hostouň
1.21

Králův Dvůr creates 55% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 87 away

creates per match

Králův Dvůr
1.93
Sokol Hostouň
1.03

allows per match

Králův Dvůr
1.40
Sokol Hostouň
1.82

finishing

Králův Dvůr+0.00on par
Sokol Hostouň+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Králův Dvůr ↓

Sokol Hostouň →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Králův Dvůr or draw
75%
Králův Dvůr or Sokol Hostouň
77%
Draw or Sokol Hostouň
47%

Winning margin

Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
30%
Sokol Hostouň wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
85%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
56%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
29%
Sokol Hostouň 1+ goals
70%
Sokol Hostouň 2+ goals
34%
Sokol Hostouň 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
68%
Sokol Hostouň (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Králův Dvůr at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.40 · 70 matches

Sokol Hostouň away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.82 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Králův Dvůr attack 1.93 + Sokol Hostouň defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sokol Hostouň attack 1.03 + Králův Dvůr defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Králův Dvůr scores more
53%
level
23%
Sokol Hostouň scores more
25%

Králův Dvůr at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Králův Dvůr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Králův Dvůr vs Sokol Hostouň

Sokol Hostouň beat Králův Dvůr 4-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr in Králuv Dvůr.