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Sokol Hostouň vs Admira Praha — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Sokol Hostouň
Sokol Hostouň
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Admira Praha
Admira Praha
3/22/20253. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 20Rynholec Uměla Tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Sokol Hostouň41%
×Draw25%
Admira Praha35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Hostouň
1.52
Admira Praha
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sokol Hostouň
1.39
Admira Praha
1.46

allows per match

Sokol Hostouň
1.32
Admira Praha
1.66

finishing

Sokol Hostouň+0.00on par
Admira Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Hostouň ↓

Admira Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sokol Hostouň or draw
65%
Sokol Hostouň or Admira Praha
75%
Draw or Admira Praha
59%

Winning margin

Sokol Hostouň wins by 2+
20%
Admira Praha wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sokol Hostouň 1+ goals
78%
Sokol Hostouň 2+ goals
45%
Sokol Hostouň 3+ goals
20%
Admira Praha 1+ goals
75%
Admira Praha 2+ goals
40%
Admira Praha 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sokol Hostouň (draw refunded)
54%
Admira Praha (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Hostouň at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.32 · 84 matches

Admira Praha away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.66 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Hostouň attack 1.39 + Admira Praha defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Admira Praha attack 1.46 + Sokol Hostouň defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sokol Hostouň scores more
41%
level
25%
Admira Praha scores more
35%

Sokol Hostouň at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sokol Hostouň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Hostouň vs Admira Praha

Admira Praha beat Sokol Hostouň 3-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Rynholec Uměla Tráva in Rynholec.