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Sokol Brozany vs Slovan Velvary — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Brozany
Sokol Brozany
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Velvary
Slovan Velvary
8/20/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 3Stadion Sokol Brozany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Sokol Brozany42%
×Draw24%
Slovan Velvary34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Brozany
1.62
Slovan Velvary
1.42

Sokol Brozany creates 14% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sokol Brozany
1.57
Slovan Velvary
1.58

allows per match

Sokol Brozany
1.25
Slovan Velvary
1.67

finishing

Sokol Brozany+0.00on par
Slovan Velvary+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Brozany ↓

Slovan Velvary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Brozany or draw
66%
Sokol Brozany or Slovan Velvary
76%
Draw or Slovan Velvary
58%

Winning margin

Sokol Brozany wins by 2+
21%
Slovan Velvary wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sokol Brozany 1+ goals
80%
Sokol Brozany 2+ goals
48%
Sokol Brozany 3+ goals
22%
Slovan Velvary 1+ goals
76%
Slovan Velvary 2+ goals
41%
Slovan Velvary 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sokol Brozany (draw refunded)
56%
Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Brozany at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.25 · 81 matches

Slovan Velvary away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Brozany attack 1.57 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Slovan Velvary attack 1.58 + Sokol Brozany defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sokol Brozany scores more
42%
level
24%
Slovan Velvary scores more
34%

Sokol Brozany at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sokol Brozany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Brozany vs Slovan Velvary

Sokol Brozany and Slovan Velvary drew 2-2 in 3. liga - CFL B on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol Brozany in Brozany nad Ohří.