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Slovan Velvary vs Sokol Brozany — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Slovan Velvary
Slovan Velvary
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sokol Brozany
Sokol Brozany
3/16/20243. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 18Stadion TJ Slovan Velvary

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Slovan Velvary45%
×Draw25%
Sokol Brozany30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Velvary
1.60
Sokol Brozany
1.25

Slovan Velvary creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 80 away

creates per match

Slovan Velvary
1.83
Sokol Brozany
1.23

allows per match

Slovan Velvary
1.27
Sokol Brozany
1.36

finishing

Slovan Velvary+0.00on par
Sokol Brozany+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Velvary ↓

Sokol Brozany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slovan Velvary or draw
70%
Slovan Velvary or Sokol Brozany
75%
Draw or Sokol Brozany
55%

Winning margin

Slovan Velvary wins by 2+
23%
Sokol Brozany wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slovan Velvary 1+ goals
80%
Slovan Velvary 2+ goals
47%
Slovan Velvary 3+ goals
22%
Sokol Brozany 1+ goals
71%
Sokol Brozany 2+ goals
36%
Sokol Brozany 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)
60%
Sokol Brozany (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Velvary at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

Sokol Brozany away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.36 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Velvary attack 1.83 + Sokol Brozany defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sokol Brozany attack 1.23 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slovan Velvary scores more
45%
level
25%
Sokol Brozany scores more
30%

Slovan Velvary at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slovan Velvary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Velvary vs Sokol Brozany

Slovan Velvary beat Sokol Brozany 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Slovan Velvary in Velvary.