Sokół Sieniawa 2–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Sokół Sieniawa

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

5/22/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa38%

×Draw24%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół SieniawaExpected goals in this matchPodlasie Biała Podlaska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.51

Sokół Sieniawa

1.52

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 104 away

1.46

creates per match

1.39

1.63

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa

1.46

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.39

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa

1.63

Podlasie Biała Podlaska

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw

62%

Sokół Sieniawa or Podlasie Biała Podlaska

76%

Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska

62%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+

18%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals

78%

Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals

45%

Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals

20%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals

78%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals

44%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)

50%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more

38%

level

24%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more

38%

Sokół Sieniawa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff