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Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
10/8/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska52%
×Draw22%
Sokół Sieniawa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.90
Sokół Sieniawa
1.29

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 47% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 71 away

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.74
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.30
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw
74%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Sokół Sieniawa
78%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
48%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
29%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
85%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
56%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
29%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
72%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
37%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
66%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
52%
level
22%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
26%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Sokół Sieniawa

Podlasie Biała Podlaska and Sokół Sieniawa drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Biała Podlaska.