Sokół Sieniawa 2–7 Lublinianka: Result & Stats

Sokół Sieniawa

FT

2 – 7

HT: 1 – 1

Lublinianka

11/6/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa57%

×Draw19%

Lublinianka24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół SieniawaExpected goals in this matchLublinianka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.59

Sokół Sieniawa

2.51

Lublinianka

1.59

Sokół Sieniawa creates 58% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 16 away

1.46

creates per match

1.56

1.63

allows per match

3.56

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa

1.46

Lublinianka

1.56

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa

1.63

Lublinianka

3.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Lublinianka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Lublinianka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw

76%

Sokół Sieniawa or Lublinianka

81%

Draw or Lublinianka

43%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+

37%

Lublinianka wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals

92%

Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals

71%

Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals

45%

Lublinianka 1+ goals

80%

Lublinianka 2+ goals

47%

Lublinianka 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)

71%

Lublinianka (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Lublinianka away — creates 1.56, concedes 3.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Lublinianka defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.51

Lublinianka attack 1.56 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more

57%

level

19%

Lublinianka scores more

24%

Sokół Sieniawa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff