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Lublinianka vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lublinianka
Lublinianka
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
6/3/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Stadion Lublinianki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lublinianka34%
×Draw23%
Sokół Sieniawa43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lublinianka
1.50
Sokół Sieniawa
1.70

Sokół Sieniawa creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 71 away

creates per match

Lublinianka
0.94
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Lublinianka
2.12
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Lublinianka+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lublinianka ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lublinianka or draw
57%
Lublinianka or Sokół Sieniawa
77%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
66%

Winning margin

Lublinianka wins by 2+
16%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Lublinianka 1+ goals
78%
Lublinianka 2+ goals
44%
Lublinianka 3+ goals
19%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
82%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
51%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Lublinianka (draw refunded)
44%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lublinianka at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lublinianka attack 0.94 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Lublinianka defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lublinianka scores more
34%
level
23%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
43%

Sokół Sieniawa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lublinianka vs Sokół Sieniawa

Sokół Sieniawa beat Lublinianka 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lublinianki in Lublin.