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Sokół Sieniawa vs Korona Kielce II — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
FT
2 – 1
Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
4/2/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa41%
×Draw23%
Korona Kielce II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Sieniawa
1.67
Korona Kielce II
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 71 away

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.46
Korona Kielce II
1.46

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.63
Korona Kielce II
1.87

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par
Korona Kielce II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Korona Kielce II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw
64%
Sokół Sieniawa or Korona Kielce II
77%
Draw or Korona Kielce II
59%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
21%
Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
81%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
50%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
23%
Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
79%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
45%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
54%
Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Korona Kielce II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.87 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.67

Korona Kielce II attack 1.46 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more
41%
level
23%
Korona Kielce II scores more
36%

Sokół Sieniawa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Sokół Sieniawa 2–1 Korona Kielce II

Sokół Sieniawa beat Korona Kielce II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Sieniawa.