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Korona Kielce II vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
FT
1 – 2
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
8/16/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion Korona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Korona Kielce II51%
×Draw21%
Sokół Sieniawa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce II
2.05
Sokół Sieniawa
1.44

Korona Kielce II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 71 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce II
2.04
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Korona Kielce II
1.60
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Korona Kielce II+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce II ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Korona Kielce II or draw
73%
Korona Kielce II or Sokół Sieniawa
79%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
49%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
30%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
87%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
61%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
33%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
76%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
42%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
66%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce II attack 2.04 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Korona Kielce II scores more
51%
level
21%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
27%

Korona Kielce II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Korona Kielce II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Kielce II vs Sokół Sieniawa

Sokół Sieniawa beat Korona Kielce II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Korona in Kielce.