Sokół Ostróda 2–1 SKRA Częstochowa: Result & Stats

Sokół Ostróda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SKRA Częstochowa

4/14/2021

II Liga - East · Round 27Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokół Ostróda39%

×Draw25%

SKRA Częstochowa36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół OstródaExpected goals in this matchSKRA Częstochowa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.40

Sokół Ostróda

1.45

SKRA Częstochowa

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 61 away

1.24

creates per match

1.05

1.74

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda

1.24

SKRA Częstochowa

1.05

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda

1.74

SKRA Częstochowa

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw

64%

Sokół Ostróda or SKRA Częstochowa

75%

Draw or SKRA Częstochowa

61%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+

18%

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals

77%

Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals

42%

Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals

18%

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals

75%

SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals

41%

SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)

51%

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.24 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.45

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.05 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more

39%

level

25%

SKRA Częstochowa scores more

36%

Sokół Ostróda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sokół Ostróda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff