SKRA Częstochowa 3–0 Sokół Ostróda: Result & Stats

SKRA Częstochowa

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sokół Ostróda

10/10/2020

II Liga - East · Round 8Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa55%

×Draw24%

Sokół Ostróda22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SKRA CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchSokół Ostróda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.00

SKRA Częstochowa

1.74

Sokół Ostróda

1.00

SKRA Częstochowa creates 74% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 35 away

1.37

creates per match

1.06

0.95

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa

1.37

Sokół Ostróda

1.06

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa

0.95

Sokół Ostróda

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Sokół Ostróda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw

78%

SKRA Częstochowa or Sokół Ostróda

76%

Draw or Sokół Ostróda

45%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+

30%

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals

82%

SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals

52%

SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals

25%

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals

63%

Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals

26%

Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)

72%

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.74

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more

55%

level

24%

Sokół Ostróda scores more

22%

SKRA Częstochowa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff