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Sokół Ostróda vs Pogoń Siedlce — II Liga - East 2019

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
4/27/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 30Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokół Ostróda33%
×Draw24%
Pogoń Siedlce43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.41
Pogoń Siedlce
1.63

Pogoń Siedlce creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.24
Pogoń Siedlce
1.52

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.74
Pogoń Siedlce
1.58

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
57%
Sokół Ostróda or Pogoń Siedlce
76%
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce
67%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
15%
Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
76%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
41%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
17%
Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
80%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
48%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
44%
Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.24 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.52 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
33%
level
24%
Pogoń Siedlce scores more
43%

Pogoń Siedlce at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Sokół Ostróda 0–0 Pogoń Siedlce

Sokół Ostróda and Pogoń Siedlce drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on April 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.