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Pogoń Siedlce vs Sokół Ostróda — II Liga - East 2019

Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
3/31/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 22Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce50%
×Draw23%
Sokół Ostróda27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Siedlce
1.79
Sokół Ostróda
1.24

Pogoń Siedlce creates 44% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce
1.48
Sokół Ostróda
1.06

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce
1.42
Sokół Ostróda
2.11

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par
Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Sokół Ostróda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw
73%
Pogoń Siedlce or Sokół Ostróda
77%
Draw or Sokół Ostróda
50%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
28%
Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
83%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
53%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
26%
Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
71%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
35%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
65%
Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.48 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more
50%
level
23%
Sokół Ostróda scores more
27%

Pogoń Siedlce at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Pogoń Siedlce 2–3 Sokół Ostróda

Sokół Ostróda beat Pogoń Siedlce 3-2 in II Liga - East on March 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion ROSRRiT in Siedlce.