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Sokół Ostróda vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
2 – 2
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
5/24/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Ostróda26%
×Draw20%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.52
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.25

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.76
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.14

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
2.35
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.29

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
46%
Sokół Ostróda or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
80%
Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
74%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
12%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
78%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
45%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
20%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
89%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
65%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
32%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.76 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.14 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
26%
level
20%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
54%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Ostróda vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Sokół Ostróda and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.